This would mean neither Labor nor the Coalition will have an outright majority in the Senate, meaning both parties will require negotiations with minor parties to pass or block legislation. Who will form government after the Qld election? This was 12.6% of all BTLs in Northern Metro, but she wasn't the highest BTL-getter in Northern Metro (Samantha Ratnam (Green) had more than twice as many.) Using the number of BTL votes of a ticket-leading candidate, such as Hollie Hughes, to say anything about that candidate's personal vote is also always problematic. All rights reserved. A record that has not been discussed but may be worth checking is Molan's. Those who were not up for re-election but are already in the Senate include Australian Conservatives’ Cory Bernardi, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and Centre Alliance. (June 2019), The Miracle Is Over: 2019 Australian Poll Fail (May 2019), Hobart Council Voting Patterns 2014-8 (Aug 2018), Why Is Seat Polling So Inaccurate? In this system there were naturally many cases of candidates in the larger states polling well over Molan's 130K without being their party's highest listed candidates. I should also mention Jack Lang getting 3.5% as an ungrouped candidate in NSW, 1951. The highest I could find was 82,786 primaries (5.6%) for Horace Nock (NSW), the sole Country Party candidate at #3 on a mixed UAP/Country ticket in 1943. The division into above the line and below the line boxes has existed since 1984, but from 1984 to 2013 voting below the line required numbering pretty much all the boxes with very few errors in order for a vote to be formal. This table provides the name and party of Senate candidates for each state and territory. But there were fewer votes back in those days, so the proportion required to match Molan's raw vote tally in the larger states wasn't seen. Senate voting rules introduced in 2016 but tested for the first time under a half Senate election successfully culled the ranks of the minor parties. Auth KB 410 Macquarie SH 7004. After 1949, Tasmanian down-ticket candidates would often break 3%, but in the mainland states, this almost completely stopped. ), Non-Custodial Parents Party (Equal Parenting), Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory) Branch. Prior to the election, the Coalition had 31 senators. Not that this would have happened in this instance (the NSW Coalition ticket would have scored 5 DD quotas more or less exactly, meaning that Molan would not have been able to catch the fifth candidate from outside the top five), but if a NSW candidate can poll almost 0.4 DD quotas there is some hope there that someday a win will occur. A 1 above the line is counted as a vote for the ticket leader, so ticket leaders may have personal support hidden inside their party's above-the-line vote. Subsequently he was placed in the "unwinnable" fourth position on the Coalition's Senate ticket in New South Wales, below Hollie Hughes , Andrew Bragg , and the Nationals' candidate Perin Davey . The government was. Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group), Online Direct Democracy - (Empowering the People! In terms of the prospects for below-the-line campaigns succeeding in the future outside Tasmania, this does show that it is vaguely realistic for a major party candidate to win from outside the ticket order in a double-dissolution (if we ever see one of those things again). Prior to 1940, candidates were listed in a single order with all parties mixed together, alphabetically. While Labor’s Lisa Singh successfully campaigned below the line in 2016 in Tasmania, she also failed to return to the Senate. Tasmanians, however, kept doing it routinely, to such a point that both John Coates (ALP, 1984) and Nick Sherry (ALP, 1996) broke 3%. The huge Molan vote in comparison to the BTL votes of others is being used to claim that Molan has an iron-clad grip on the right to a Senate vacancy. (Excuse: I post pseph stuff in the politics section). This table is sortable by selecting on column headers. In NSW, Nationals senator Perin Davey looks likely to win against predictions and following a last minute fight with the Liberal party after NSW senator Jim Molan urged supporters to ignore Coalition voting instructions to give him their first preference. Both Labor and the Liberals gained a swing in South Australia as a result of the Centre Alliance collapse. Labor’s Lisa Singh successfully campaigned below the line in 2016. Molan's six figure tally has been described as a "record" personal vote in terms of votes received, but that claim requires a lot of historic unpacking. That system was knocked on the head after Labor used its famous "Four A's" ticket (Amour, Armstrong, Arthur, Ashley) to scoop the donkey vote in NSW 1937, helping itself to all four seats by a narrow margin under the repeat-preferencing system then in use.
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