In accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards, this analysis is based on the best available data. As of May 22, 2020: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, "Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases," data repository, undated. The generated json file will be saved in the folder old_data with its timestamp as a name and will overwrite the file most_recent_data.json. Using the CAT-V tool, we estimate the global spread of COVID-19 by international air passengers prior to the March 11, 2020, declaration by the World Health Organization (WHO) that the world was officially experiencing a pandemic—defined as "the worldwide spread of a new disease." Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. With more than 1,700 confirmed cases, South Korea was likely exporting more than two cases abroad per day via air travel. As of May 2020, the most important caveat of the CAT-V tool is the use of country-level data and thus the assumption of equal passenger risk profiles. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Christopher A. Mouton, Russell Hanson, et al. As of the publication of this report, we continue to develop the CAT-V tool. He holds bachelor's degrees in computer science and astrophysics. Our tool does not correct for inaccurate or misleading case reporting. In reality, the number of active COVID-19 positive cases today could reflect the rate of infection up to two weeks ago. in public policy. Christopher A. Mouton is a senior aerospace engineer at the RAND Corporation. As a result, policymakers, analysts, and others can estimate the impact of travel-related policy interventions, such as restricting air travel from various countries. We will continue to develop and use the CAT-V tool in new ways, and we will continue to release a stream of derivative findings on topics of interest to policymakers. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Adam R. Grissom is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. The COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization tool combines confirmed COVID-19 case data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering's COVID-19 Dashboard with detailed air passenger data from the International Air Transport Association's Nationality Traffic Report program. By the end of February, nearly 40 passengers per week were spreading the disease worldwide via international air travel. Those countries, in descending order of risk, were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the United States, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, and Malaysia. Logstalgia is a website traffic visualization that replays or streams web-server access logs as a pong-like battle between the web server and an never ending torrent of requests. These findings underscore the importance of developing a responsive, forward-looking analytical basis for policies related to pandemic risks. After that it is relatively simple. Future versions of the tool will incorporate province- and state-level data. Launched way back in 2006, previous cab trails are drawn in the background, with current cabs driving around the city. International Air Transport Association, Nationality Traffic Report, web tool, undated. The CAT-V tool does not correct for inaccurate or misleading case reporting. The COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization tool combines confirmed COVID-19 case data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering's COVID-19 Dashboard with detailed air passenger data from the International Air Transport Association's Nationality Traffic Report program. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Systemic differences between actual cases and reported cases could have material effects on our results. The project consists of a nodejs API, some static front end files and a scraping script. Hanson, Russell, Christopher A. Mouton, Adam R. Grissom, and John P. Godges, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, The Role of Allies and Partners in U.S. Military Strategy and Operations, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper Visits RAND, Georgia: From COVID-19 to a Critical Test of Democracy, Measuring Wellbeing to Help Communities Thrive, Planning for the Rising Costs of Dementia, Assessing and Articulating the Wider Benefits of Research, https://www.iata.org/en/services/statistics/intelligence/nationality-traffic-report, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19, Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 Through Air Travel, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: By January 31, 2020, at Least 1.5 Daily Infected Passengers Were Originating in China, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: COVID-19 Cases in China Were Likely 37 Times Higher Than Reported in January 2020, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: Decisionmakers Should Base Travel Restrictions on Infection Rates Per Capita and Air Traffic Levels, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: Air Passenger Transmission Risk to GCC Countries Originated from Outside the Region, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: Worldwide Spread of COVID-19 Accelerated Starting on February 19, 2020, COVID-19 Air Traffic Visualization: African Anchor States Face Higher Risk of Importing COVID-19 Cases, New Tool Employs Air Travel Data to Predict Global Spread of COVID-19, theater assessments of where COVID-19 stress may increase the likelihood of political crises that threaten U.S. diplomatic and other facilities, the viability of contingency operating locations required to respond to those crises.
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